Libertarian Gary Johnson, seeing his chances for a debate invite slipping away, is making a fresh argument for relevancy in his latest ad. His pitch: "if anybody tells you no third-party candidate has ever won the presidency, repeat this: Abraham Lincoln." After a tight shot of Lincoln on Mount Rushmore, Johnson's running-mate Bill Weld describes Lincoln as, "the first president of a new third-party, calling themselves Republicans."
Johnson and Weld make another dubious claim in the ad. Weld notes, "A Johnson-Weld victory in as few as one state could prevent both those parties from getting an electoral majority." Johnson chimes in, "When than happens, it will be up to Congress to choose between Trump's craziness, Clinton's 'co-optedness,' or, the two of us!" (Images of an angry Trump, and of Clinton plastered with corporate logos are shown.)
Tossing out fantasy electoral scenarios is not much of a home-stretch campaign strategy. But with Johnson polling well below 15 percent nationally and harboring little remaining hope of a debate invite, he needs to offer up something to his supporters so they don't completely abandon him by Election Day.
The 1860 Republican Party Wasn't a Third-Party
Johnson and Weld may need to brush up on their history. The Republican Party wasn't a third-party in 1860. Weld is correct that the Republican Party was relatively new, having been founded in 1854. But it quickly supplanted the disintegrating Whig Party, and its first presidential candidate in 1856 ran a strong second.Johnson and Weld make another dubious claim in the ad. Weld notes, "A Johnson-Weld victory in as few as one state could prevent both those parties from getting an electoral majority." Johnson chimes in, "When than happens, it will be up to Congress to choose between Trump's craziness, Clinton's 'co-optedness,' or, the two of us!" (Images of an angry Trump, and of Clinton plastered with corporate logos are shown.)
But Can Gary Johnson Throw The Presidential Election To The U.S. House?
This is technically true, but decidedly improbable. Johnson's best chance at winning a state is his home state of New Mexico, worth five electoral votes. (A 50-state Washington Post poll found Johnson earning 25 percent, but still in third place.) For that one state to deny Clinton or Trump 270 electoral college votes, and throw the election to the House, Donald Trump would likely have to pick off four states Obama won (his best chances are Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Nevada) and not lose Romney states where the race is close (North Carolina, Arizona or Georgia). And even if such a perfect storm came together, the Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives would have to decide to abandon their own party's nominee and choose the Libertarian.Tossing out fantasy electoral scenarios is not much of a home-stretch campaign strategy. But with Johnson polling well below 15 percent nationally and harboring little remaining hope of a debate invite, he needs to offer up something to his supporters so they don't completely abandon him by Election Day.