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Can New Ads Counter Tough Hillary Clinton Poll Results?

Posted on
July 15, 2016
by Cynthia Samuels
Good news and bad within a few hours for the Clinton campaign. State presidential polls, released early Wednesday, contained some bad news for Hillary Clinton. 

In a Quinnipiac poll, Trump led 42-39 in Florida, 43-41 in Pennsylvania and tied 41-41 in Ohio when voters were asked, “If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?” No candidate since 1960 has been elected without winning two of these three states.

Then a nationwide McClatchy-Marist poll of registered voters showed Clinton's lead shrink three points, from 42 to 39 percent. She’d been ahead by six points in late June.

On Wednesday, new polling information was released that would cheer up any candidate, “presumptive” or otherwise. In the later NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist University poll, Clinton led in Pennsylvania 45-36, a 6 point lead over Trump. Earlier that day, a Quinnipiac report placed Trump ahead by 2 points in the same state.

The two are more in sync in Ohio, where they remain tied 41-41 in both.

How "The Shows" May Hurt Donald Trump

Either way, both candidates have a lot of work to do, but Clinton’s recent political ad, “The Shows,” may be particularly valuable. It focuses on Trump’s notorious “I watch the shows” response when MSNBC's Chuck Todd asked him where he turned for military advice.

The ad is running in eight swing states where polls have been somewhat volatile. According to Politico: “It’s possible the results of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s private email server dating back to her service as secretary of state... are driving Clinton’s poll numbers down leading into the conventions, typically a critical time for campaigns.”

Until recently, Secretary Clinton has run a series of softer ads, citing her life-long commitment to kids, health care and family issues, although external supporters like super PAC Priorities USA Action have run some tougher ones.

“The Shows” uses Trump’s words against him through video of Mrs. Clinton’s work as Secretary of State, meetings with heads of state, both friend and foe. The copy reminds us that she “negotiated a cease-fire in Gaza, a reduction of nuclear weapons, took on Vladimir Putin and stood up against the trafficking of human beings” with cover footage to match.

Given FBI Director James Comey's testimony and the drubbing she is sure to take at next week’s Republican Convention and beyond, we’ll no doubt see more ads like this one.
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